Daveduffield Analysis of Jordan Market from 2010

This was originally posted on Hobby Kings in January of this year. For some reason, I never saw this. I’ll post it in full:
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The following is an in depth analysis of all eBay transactions in MJs 90s cards with a final sales price of at least 240 USD.
All sales in 2010 were recorded and the following was safed: auction no., card, price, seller, winner, bidders who placed
a bid within 25% of the final sales price, countries of all participants

1. market overview – Michael Jordan 90s trading cards in 2010 (final sales price of 240 USD or more)
– 639 cards sold
– total value of all 639 cards: 398.704 USD
– 240 different sellers
– avg. Seller feedback : 6886
– median seller feedback: 2519
– 231 different winners
– 444 different bidders, who placed a bid within 25% of the final sales price on at least one of the items

2. Top 25 cards by value

1. 4600 USD 97-98 Metal Universe PMG Red 39/100
2. 4050 USD 99-00 Epic Signatures BGS 9.5 11/23

3. 4000 USD 97-98 Z-Force Super Rave ZUP No. 190 PSA 10
4. 3850 USD 99-00 Upper Deck Game Jersey AU 1/23 BGS 9.5

5. 3716 USD 97-98 Metal Universe Championship PMG 43/50
6. 3705 USD 97-98 Upper Deck Game Jersey Logoman BGS Blue Label Authentic

7. 3649 USD 97-98 Metal Universe PMG Red 18/100
8. 3550 USD 98-99 Game JSY AU 3/23 BGS 9.5

9. 3150 USD 98-99 Skybox Premium Star Rubies 12/50

10. 2850 USD 97-98 Metal Universe PMG Red 17/100
11. 2650 USD 99-00 Upper Deck Hologrfx Shoe AU 8/23
12. 2550 USD 99-00 Epic Signatures PSA 9 11/23
13. 2425 USD 99-00 Epic Signatures 19/23 BGS 9

14. 2320 USD 97-98 Jambalaya BGS 9.5 5114764
15. 2300 USD 99-00 UD Master Collection Complete Set 320/500
16. 2225 USD 99-00 Retro Inkredible 16/23
17. 2200 USD 99-00 Upper Deck Legends JSY AU 13/23

18. 2200 USD 97-98 Jambalaya BGS 9.5
19. 2175 USD 99-00 UD Hologrfx Authentics Auto
20. 2100 USD 97-98 Jambalaya BGS 9.5 5114764
21. 2084 USD 99-00 Upper Deck Game Jersey Patch Super 04/25

22. 2046 USD 97-98 Jambalaya BGS 9.5 5114764

23. 2045 USD 98-99 Fleer Playmakers Theatre 99/100
24. 2025 USD 97-98 Jambalaya
25. 2000 USD 97-98 SPX Promotion AU 60/100

3. most successful sellers

1. powerbuyer23 (TWN) 53 sales
2. yanxyanx (USA) 31
3. firehorse9798 (USA) 26
3. just_collect (USA) 26
5. jeterman2 (USA) 25
6. bond_girl_007 (AUS) 18
6. rose-city-sports (USA) 18
8. xocompany (USA) 16
9. queencity_sportscards (USA) 12
10.jrsmith_23 (AUS) 10
10.bertscards (USA) 10

4. most successful buyers

1. USA buyer 32 items won or bought
2. AUS 26
3. USA2 21
4. USA3 19
5. USA4 16
6. USA5 12
7. AUS2 12
8. USA6 10
9. AUS3 8
10.HGK 8
Please note that all buyers were identified, but as eBay keeps names confidential this should be respected. Thats why only the country and number of items won or bought is visible.

5. most active bidders (items bid on; highest bid had to be at least 25 percent within final sales price)

1. TWN 68 items bid on (highest bid was at least 25 pct. within final sales price)
2. AUS 45
3. USA 39
4. USA2 38
5. AUS2 29
6. TWN2 27
7. USA3 26
8. GER 21
9. HGK 21
10.CHN 19
11.USA4 19
12.TWN3 18
13.TWN4 18

6. most active sellers by country /number of sales / pct. of total sales

USA 501 78,4%
TWN 69 10,8%
AUS 35 5,5%
GBR 7 1,1%
SKR 4 0,6%
FRA 4 0,6%
JAP 4 0,6%
CHN 3 0,5%
INDo 2 0,3%
GER 2 0,3%
BEL 2 0,3%
HGK 2 0,3%
PHI 1 0,2%
AUT 1 0,2%
HUN 1 0,2%
SGP 1 0,2%
16 countries / 639 items / 100%

7. most active sellers by country (number of different sellers)

USA 200 83,3%
TWN 11 4,6%
AUS 5 2,1%
GBR 3 1,3%
SKR 3 1,3%
CHN 3 1,3%
PHI 1 0,4%
INDo 2 0,8%
AUT 1 0,4%
GER 2 0,8%
HUN 1 0,4%
BEL 1 0,4%
FRA 1 0,4%
SGP 1 0,4%
HGK 2 0,8%
JAP 3 1,3%

8. most bids by country

USA 604 52,8%
AUS 178 15,6%
TWN 128 11,2%
CHN 38 3,3%
GER 35 3,1%
HGK 30 2,6%
AUT 27 2,4%
JPN 22 1,9%
SKR 14 1,2%
DEN 14 1,2%
FRA 11 1,0%
INDO 10 0,9%
PHI 9 0,8%
MLY 7 0,6%
SGP 7 0,6%
BEL 4 0,3%
CAD 3 0,3%
SUI 2 0,2%

9. most sales for a specific card at 240 USD or above

year – card name – times sold (graded)

1996-97 E-X2000 A Cut Above 24 (13)

1996-97 Fleer Thrill Seekers 22 (3)

1997-98 Metal Universe Platinum Portraits 21

1998-99 Noyz Boyz 21 (11)
1996-97 Flair Showcase Hot Shots 20 (8 )
1997-98 Ultra Star Power Supreme 20 (6)
1997-98 Skybox Premium Golden Touch 18 (2)
1997-98 Ultra Court Masters 16 (5)
1997-98 Z-Force Big Men on Court 15 (11)
1996-97 Z-Force Big Men on Court Z-Peat 14 (3)
1997-98 E-X2001 Jambalaya 14 (9)
1997-98 Ultrabilities Superstar 12 (4)
1993-94 Ultra Scoring Kings 10 (10)
1996-97 Topps Chrome Refractors 10 (5)
1996-97 Flair Showcase Row 0 /250 10 (3)
1997-98 Triumvirate Illuminator 10 (4)

Summary:
One interesting thing to note is, that while 83% of all sellers came from the US, only 65% of all buyers and only 52% of all bidders are based nationwide. Of the Top 13 bidders only 4 came from the U.S. So, it is the US selling and the world buying. With most international economies growing and the US economy still looking for a recovery, that trend could contine for a while. Especially China could be interesting to watch. Even though chinese collectors rarely won an item last year, they are already up at No. 4 when it comes to active bidders.

Another interesting development is, that the number of different sellers is about equal to the number of different buyers. At first one might think, that this should be pretty normal. But reality usually is, that you have few (high-feedback) sellers vs. lots of (lower-feedback) buyers. So usually the ratio should not be 1:1 but more 2 buyers : 1 seller or even 3:1.

Please note, that the following is my personal conclusion and contains thoughts of speculative nature. It is neither a recommendation to buy nor sell any trading cards:
What could it all mean ? The high prices seen in 2010 prompted spontaneous selling activities by lots of private sellers, many of them US based and owning only 1 high end MJ card. These sellers were probably looking for a good exit point and cashed in on the high prices of 2010. Most of them will no longer be future sellers, as they simply own no more high end MJ cards of the 90s.
On the other hand, about 3 – 4 dozen buyers are continously buying at these heightened levels. They will most likely come back and continue to fil holes in their collections.
Many Jordan collectors were aged 12 – 32 during the 90s and are now something like 27 – 47 years of age. Currently that group should have more income and wealth at their disposal then 15 years ago and that trend could continue for at least the next 20 years.
Again, this is my personal summary and it contains thoughts of speculative nature. Please keep that in mind and draw your
own conclusions.

$20,000 Michael Jordan Masterpiece

Do you have $20K to spare?  Maybe you could consider picking up a 1999 Ultimate Victory Jordan’s Greatest Hits 1 of 1. Yes, a masterpiece.

UPDATE, JULY 30:  I have spoken to the seller, Mike (miim7777@aol.com) who recently pulled the auction for the card. He’s taking it to Chicago for The National, where he intends to get it graded by BGS. I asked him to share the story of how he acquired it and this is what he told me:

Yeah I will let you know what it comes back and send you pics before I list it. I actually bought it in a deal from a guy who had listed his Jordan collection on ebay and I bought some of the lots and then asked him what else he had. We did the rest of the transaction via paypal and I got a bunch of nice Jordan insets in the deal but spent some big money. Have had several people show interest but everyone keeps saying that its not a legit 1/1 because there are 31 cards in the greatest hits set. My response to that is that I see precious metal gems all the time as well as other high end Jordans but how many have you seen of these in the last 12 years and many of that product was either sent back because it was a horrible seller so who knows how many are floating out there. After getting it graded I believe it will come back a BGS 9.5 and I probably would not consider selling it for anything less than x amount. I just know it can only go up and eventually people will realize the true value. Thanks

The only other sale I could find on this card was from 2007, when another version sold for a little over $430:

Protected: 2001 Fleer Premium Star Rubies /100

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RECORD HIGH: 1998 Thunder Noyz Boyz GRADED

UPDATE, AUGUST 11: This card has been re-listed, so it looks like this BIN did not go through.

Ebay seller, wannabelikemike2345 just sold a BGS 9.5 1998 Thunder Noyz Boyz Michael Jordan for $1,223.23 Buy It Now.  If this auction holds up and is confirmed, it will be the a new record, smashing the previous confirmed high for a BGS 9.5 of $838.88 by seller raymieh3761ff on July 11.  Check out all other auctions I’ve tracked for this card, too.  The highest ungraded sale of this that I have recorded was on May 8 from seller j_rob11 at $400.

Another Jordan Masterpiece 1/1 Hits Ebay!

>A second! Michael Jordan 1/1 Masterpiece has hit ebay in the last few days.  This one comes from seller 15carolinablue15 and is available for $20,00 or best offer.

More to come…

Protected: 1995 Finest Orange Mystery Refractor

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Michael Jordan One of Ones, 1/1’s, Masterpieces WANTED!

Have you got a Michael Jordan One of One, 1/1,  Masterpiece from the 90’s?  I’m talking Flair Showcase, Metal Universe, Upper Deck, Ultra Masterpiece and any other ones that were produced in the mid to late-nineties. Well, if you have one and you’re looking to sell, I have been contacted by a Michael Jordan collector who is looking to throw down…

$50,000 CASH.

This collector is pretty serious and if you’ve got the cards, I can get you in touch with someone who would like to get a hold of one of these super cards.  Please email Mike at huperoyalty@gmail.com and I can disclose further information about the buyer and put you guys in communication to hammer out  the details.

January 2012 note:  the image above, a 1998 Metal Gem Master Michael Jordan,  was sold for $2,508.23 on 4/15/07.

Jordan 365: 16

#imback #fourtyfive #1995

Find Me on the Hobby Kings Blog, Too!

As of today, I’m going to be writing for the Hobby Kings Blog, too.

I have no clue what I’ll write about on there.  Maybe I’ll write stories on my experiences of being a Warriors fan – attending games, autograph signings, heartache/heartbreak of rooting for an eternally bleak franchise and/or the excitement and optimism of being an up and coming team with a few good young players.

I’ll try to keep it non-Jordan related, so that it isn’t repetitive of what I write here. In the meantime, here is the Hobby Kings blog with some recent posts on some Air Jordan Retro 3s, Joe’s experience at a Derrick Rose autograph signing and a 2010 National Treasures box break.

 

RECORD HIGH: 1997 SP Authentic Profiles 3 /100

The latest auction for a copy of the 1997 SP Authentic Profiles 3 /100 was picked up for a Buy It Now price of $1,150 from ebay seller/buyer griffanfan32.   I think this card would easily have gone for $1,500-$2,000 had it been auctioned.  I think collectors enjoy red bordered cards that tie in with Chicago Bulls colors and pay more for these inserts.  Just my thought.  The card is numbered 25/100.