Daveduffield’s 2011 eBay market report as of 10-20-2011


One of my favorite things to read on Hobby Kings are the insights of daveduffield, with his opinions, analysis and thoroughly extensive data he provides when talking markets and Michael Jordan cards. For two years now, I have seen him write up in-depth information that he shares on Hobby Kings and this year, he has been nice enough to share that information with me so that I could post it on Hupe Royalty. As far as I can tell, this is exclusive information, but I’m pretty sure he’ll be posting it on various message boards in the very near future. Thanks dave for sharing this information with me and the many collectors/detrators who find this information fun to know!

2011 eBay market summary (as of 10-20-11) for Michael Jordan sports trading cards out of the 90s valued at least 500 USD

1. general numbers
– 547 sales for 868.544 USD (2011 to date) vs. 218 sales for 257.872 USD (full year 2010)
– projected volume for full year 2011 – 1.000.000 USD+
– market change 2011 vs. 2010 +320%

2. sales by month in USD
01 – 51.775 USD
02 – 55.613
03 – 90.091
04 – 41.519
05 – 104.184
06 – 104.919
07 – 119.527
08 – 84.780
09 – 95.324
10 – 120.809

3. Top 20 sales
1997-98 Upper Deck Game Jersey Auto 15/23 32000 USD – alzoman USA 27.3.
1994-95 SP Top Prospects Baseball (1995) Autographs BGS 9.5 14100 USD – 1prewarcardcollector USA 6.10.
1997-98 Metal Universe PMG Red 59/100 BGS 8.5 11100 USD . 23jordanxi USA 17.7.
1999-00 Upper Deck Final Floor FF11 1/1 9433 USD – beckettmedia USA 22.5.
1997-98 Metal Universe PMG Red 018/100 8600 USD – redskinswizards USA 25.9.
1998-99 Metal Universe PMG 20/50 8438,61 USD – firehorse9798 USA 25.6.
1998-99 Upper Deck Game Jersey Auto OV-GJ 17/23 BGS 9.5 8255 USD – greg0811 TWN 1.10.
1998-99 Skybox Thunder Super Rave 21/25 BGS 9 8225,99 USD – kobes_for_sale USA 30.5.
1998-99 Upper Deck Game Jersey Auto LL-GJ 07/23 BGS 9.5 7000,02 – the_pirates_parrot AUS 12.9.
1997-98 E-X2001 Essential Credentials Future 14/72 BGS 9.5 6766 USD – kobes_for_sale USA 26.6.
1995-96 Finest Mystery Bordered Test Refractors BGS 9.5 6302,99 USD – gradest-sportscards USA 27.6.
1997-98 Z-Force Super Rave ZUP 33/50 BGS 9.5 6050 USD – legacy_pmg_rubies AUS 27.6.
1998-99 Skybox Premium Star Rubies /50 5901,99 USD – firehorse9798 USA 26.6.
1998-99 Skybox Premium Star Rubies /50 5752,99 USD – stockluck USA 11.9.
1998-99 Metal Universe PMG 37/50 in bad condition 5650 USD – legacy_pmg_rubies AUS 28.7.
1998-99 Metal Universe PMG 37/50 labeled blue BGS Authentic 5250 USD – mintstateinc USA 11.10.
1997-98 Flair Showcase Legacy Collection Row 0 025/100 BGS 9.5 5223,45 USD – nismo68 USA 6.7.
1997-98 Skybox Premium Star Rubies No.235 TS 24/50 5000 USD – maitai326 USA 16.7.
1998-99 Metal Universe PMG 38/50 5000 USD – godlovesworld316 AUS 15.2.
1995-96 Finest Mystery Bordered Test Refractors PSA 10 4999,99 USD – rare23air83 USA 27.6.

4. Most active sellers (country – feedback as of first sale in 2011 – number of cards sold – total value of cards sold)
firehorse9798 (USA – 501) – 26 cards for 62.623 USD
just_collect (USA – 41298) – 25 cards for 26.210 USD
kobes_for_sale (USA – 1453) – 19 cards for 49.748 USD
yanxyanx (USA – 30883) – 16 cards for 21.168 USD
godlovesworld316 (USA- 483) – 14 cards for 28.838 USD
cardgems (USA – 1172) – 12 cards for 9.884 USD
legacy_pmg_rubies (AUS – 59) – 12 cards for 34.518 USD
raymieh3761ff (USA – 2341) – 11 cards for 7.488 USD

5. General Seller stats regarding eBay-feedback
average seller feedback – 8.452 (6724 in 2010)
median seller feedback – 1.360 (2519 in 2010)
10% of all sellers had a feedback of 100 or lower (vs. 5% in 2010)
61% of all sellers had a feedback of 1.000 or higher (vs. 67% in 2010)
43% of all sellers had a feedback of 2.000 or higher (vs. 53% in 2010)
19% of all sellers had a feedback of 10.000 or higher (vs. 19% in 2010)

6. Bidders stats
439 different bidders placed a bid within 25% of the final sales price and at least 500 USD strong
204 different winners

7. participants by country
7.1. sellers
82% USA
9% Australia
5% Taiwan
others: Singapure, Germany, UK, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Belgium, Hong Kong, Japan, Canada
7.2. buyers
74% USA
12% Australia
3% Germany
3% Canada
others: Taiwan, Austria, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, France, Switzerland, UAE, Belgium, Japan, South Korea

8. largest buyers (country only)
USA1 – 53 cards won
USA2 – 35
USA3 – 19
USA4 – 16
USA5 – 12
Australia1 – 11
USA6 – 10
USA7 – 9
USA8 – 9
Canada1 – 9
Australia2 – 8

Summary:
1. More sales are taking place at higher prices. Total market volume will increase by more then 300% compared to 2010.
2. It seems harder for sellers to find valuable cards. Because we saw more low-feedback-sellers accompanied by a consistent percentage of very-high-feedback-sellers. In general low-feedback-sellers (which doubled their percentage from 2010) have one card for sale only, which may have been their lifetime-pull. They are usually not actively collecting nor selling.
On the other hand professional high-feedback-sellers pushed up the average feedback. They usually have the best access to rare cards (because of their broad customer base and purchases of large lots).
So, as far as the sellers are concerned it seems as if the market trends towards accidential low feedback sellers (100 feedbacks or less) and professional sellers (10.000 feedbacks or more), making up 29% of the total market (vs. 24% in 2010).
3. Many cards switch into the hands of dedicated Jordan collectors or people looking for alternative investments. The latter is evidenced by market-percentage of the Top 10 buyers. While they were responsible for 26% of all purchases in 2010, this number is up to 33% in 2011, meaning 33% of all purchase made came by the Top 10 buyers out of the 204 different winners.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: